Voters in Australia and Canada Turn Away from Conservatives

• In the months since Donald Trump returned to the U.S. presidency, both Australia and Canada have held national elections resulting in significant defeats for their conservative parties.
• The elections saw center-left parties-Labor in Australia and Liberals in Canada-regain or retain power, often in races that had previously favored conservatives.
• Analysts point to a mix of Trump’s influence, local issues, and global trends as key factors behind the conservative losses.
• The swing has sparked debate about the causes, including the impact of U.S. politics, domestic policy missteps, and voter fatigue with populism.
• The results may signal a broader international realignment away from right-wing populism, with implications for future elections and global alliances.

Viewpoint 1: Trump’s Return Drove Voters Away from Conservatives

TL;DR: Trump’s return to the White House made conservative parties in Australia and Canada less appealing, as voters associated them with Trump-style politics and instability.

Snippets from around the web

“After Canada, Trump could drag down conservatives in another election in Australia. Days after a Canadian election that hinged on who would best stand up to U.S. President Donald Trump, he is at the center of an election in another liberal democracy… Trust in the United States is plummeting in Australia… As in Canada, Australia's opposition conservative party, the Liberal Party, was primed to win before Trump returned to office… But it has since lost support among voters increasingly concerned about how their government will handle Trump.” - NBC News, https://www.nbcnews.com/world/asia/canada-trump-drag-conservatives-another-election-australia-rcna203325

“A slate of foreign elections this week indicated that voters have become increasingly concerned with the role of US President Donald Trump. In Australia on Saturday, the ruling Labor Party achieved a significant victory, as the electorate turned down a right-leaning candidate who had adopted strategies akin to those of the U.S. president. This resurgence for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's party mirrored Canada's recent elections, where the incumbent Liberal Party, previously trailing in the polls, capitalized on an anti-Trump sentiment to secure a win.” - Semafor, https://www.semafor.com/article/05/04/2025/anti-incumbency-trend-falters-as-trump-effect-shapes-foreign-elections

“Mark Carney and the Liberal Party have claimed a remarkable victory in the Canadian election – and it appears to have come with a big assist from Donald Trump. The constant pressure from the U.S. president, along with his provocations about making Canada the 51st state since resuming office in January, coincided with a remarkable shift in fortunes for the center-left party.” - BBC News, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5ypz7yx73wo

“Though Dutton says he's his 'own person,' his association with Trump appears to have become a liability among Australian voters, said John Blaxland, a professor of international security and intelligence studies at the Australian National University... Dutton, perhaps overenthusiastically, endorsed President Trump's victory without recognizing how difficult that would make his position-not with the bolted-on right, but with the swing voters, the center of the center, where all elections are won in Australia.” - NBC News, https://www.nbcnews.com/world/asia/canada-trump-drag-conservatives-another-election-australia-rcna203325

“The clear win for Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese against a conservative party that had appeared to gain momentum illustrated how Trump's contempt for U.S. allies has impeded the global right, according to analysts. A recent survey indicated that two-thirds of Australians now view the U.S. as an unreliable security partner, a rise from 39% in June, signaling a fundamental shift in perspective.” - Semafor, https://www.semafor.com/article/05/04/2025/anti-incumbency-trend-falters-as-trump-effect-shapes-foreign-elections

Viewpoint 2: Local Factors and Conservative Missteps Were Decisive

TL;DR: While Trump’s influence mattered, local issues and conservative leaders’ unpopular policies and campaign mistakes played a bigger role in their defeats.

Snippets from around the web

“Blaming Donald Trump for conservative losses in both Canada and Australia is being too kind to Peter Dutton. The Coalition should resist seeing Trump as a natural disaster over which they had no control. Peter Dutton made many other missteps that doomed his party's chances… In both instances, the leaders of the conservative opposition-Pierre Poilievre in Canada and Peter Dutton in Australia-failed to secure their own parliamentary seats.” - The Conversation, https://theconversation.com/blaming-donald-trump-for-conservative-losses-in-both-canada-and-australia-is-being-too-kind-to-peter-dutton-255599

“‘Trump might have played a part but local, everyday issues hurt Dutton.’ … Stone attributed Dutton's defeat primarily to two significant ‘local issues’ that directly affected people's daily lives. ‘His attempt to compel civil servants to return to the office, halting remote work, and the threats of termination he made were extremely unpopular among young families in the outer suburbs, who are ‘really anxious’ about inflation and rising living costs,’ he explained… ‘Additionally, his proposal to construct nuclear power plants across the nation was another factor that significantly weakened his position.’” - Al Jazeera, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2025/5/3/australia-election-results-2025-live-pm-albanese-faces-off-with-dutton

“In Australia, we observed that conservative leader Peter Dutton adopted some of the culture war strategies, highly divisive and polarizing tactics that Trump has made popular, and the Australian public largely rejected this approach… Stone indicated that the influence of Trump likely contributed to Labor's impressive performance, yet he emphasized that the impact of the US president was not as clear-cut as it was during Canada's elections, ‘where there was a very direct cause and response’ linked to his actions and the election outcome.” - Al Jazeera, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2025/5/3/australia-election-results-2025-live-pm-albanese-faces-off-with-dutton

“The recent federal election in Australia, occurring just days after Canada's, has yielded strikingly similar results, prompting commentators worldwide to draw comparisons. Not long ago, both nations' center-left administrations appeared to be in significant jeopardy. However, both governments are now reveling in historic successes, and in both instances, the leaders of the conservative opposition… failed to secure their own parliamentary seats.” - The Conversation, https://theconversation.com/blaming-donald-trump-for-conservative-losses-in-both-canada-and-australia-is-being-too-kind-to-peter-dutton-255599

“Before Trump's return to power, Poilievre's Conservative Party appeared to have a commanding lead in voter preference polls amid widespread discontent regarding the Canadian economy and nearly ten years of Liberal leadership under Justin Trudeau… This Canadian election defied that global trend, as the Liberals compelled Trudeau to step down and appointed the political outsider, former Bank of England governor Carney, as their new leader. He campaigned vigorously against what the party consistently depicted as the genuine danger Trump posed not only to their economy but also to Canada's sovereignty.” - BBC News, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5ypz7yx73wo

Viewpoint 3: The Swing Reflects Broader Global Trends Against Populism

TL;DR: The conservative defeats in Australia and Canada are part of a wider international backlash against right-wing populism and a desire for more stable, centrist leadership.

Snippets from around the web

“A series of international elections this week revealed a shift among voters, moving away from an anti-incumbent sentiment and focusing more on the influence of U.S. President Donald Trump… While conservative populism and anti-incumbent feelings had been gaining traction globally, the elections in Canada and Australia suggest a resurgence of social democratic principles, potentially revitalizing center-left coalitions, as noted by a journalist from the Sydney Morning Herald.” - Semafor, https://www.semafor.com/article/05/04/2025/anti-incumbency-trend-falters-as-trump-effect-shapes-foreign-elections

“Trust in the United States is plummeting in Australia, which votes Saturday amid global financial turmoil sparked by tariffs Trump has imposed on trading partners around the world including Australia, a U.S. ally and vital security partner in countering China… Blaxland described Trump's disregard for long-standing alliances and his quid pro quo approach to U.S. foreign policy as ‘vertigo inducing’ for politicians, policymakers and voters in Australia, where voting is mandatory.” - NBC News, https://www.nbcnews.com/world/asia/canada-trump-drag-conservatives-another-election-australia-rcna203325

“A recent survey indicated that two-thirds of Australians now view the U.S. as an unreliable security partner, a rise from 39% in June, signaling a fundamental shift in perspective.” - Semafor, https://www.semafor.com/article/05/04/2025/anti-incumbency-trend-falters-as-trump-effect-shapes-foreign-elections

“Ironically, Trump’s critical stance on Canada may have prevented him from having a northern neighbor governed by a politician who, while not an exact ideological match, is more aligned with his populist conservative agenda than Carney… Indications suggest Canada is looking more towards Europe for dependable partnerships, which is likely to frustrate the American president.” - BBC News, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5ypz7yx73wo

“The clear win for Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese against a conservative party that had appeared to gain momentum illustrated how Trump's contempt for U.S. allies has impeded the global right, according to analysts.” - Semafor, https://www.semafor.com/article/05/04/2025/anti-incumbency-trend-falters-as-trump-effect-shapes-foreign-elections